The world loves confident people, doesn't it? PERHAPS we are biologically programmed to favor individuals displaying a trait of confidence over others exhibiting a degree of self-doubt. You know it and you have seen it. The public voting for that amazing politician who's such a good orator. The journalist who pronounces causalities like " Sensex down 12 points over inflation fears." or making judgments like "India needs to feed its poor before aiming for space" without blinking her eye. The public has little grasp over the nuances of policy-making and subconsciously decides the best policy ,hence the politician over how confident they appear. Likewise, the cocksure journalist probably hasn't done her homework before pronouncing judgments which defy rationality. (A 12 point shift in the Sensex hardly indicates anything and the cost of Chandrayaan was equal to the cost of a big airliner, hundreds of which ply over Indian skies at any given time) Yet, their arguments appear sound and convincing. Its no secret that the dumbest guys are most cocksure and aren't afraid of taking huge risks.
In stark contrast, a rational and informed individual always appears hesitant , especially if you ask him to pronounce a judgment. Its not because he knows nothing, its because he knows he doesn't know everything. Maybe, that's the reason they aren't the darlings of the TV media used to quick and vapid sound-bites. Ever noticed how funny news channels look when they invite actors to discuss political issues? Here's the point. They dont invite them because they know everything , they invite them because they appear to know everything. Politicians sure as hell are not exempt from not knowing but blabbering something rather convincingly. I had the opportunity to witness a debate on globalization on TV yesterday on NDTV and was startled to discover some of the participants making juvenile remarks quite confidently. (They are used to it. Most of them were politicians). The public quickly laps up all they say without a hint of skepticism. A good example would be the theory floating around that the lesser the economic regulation, better the nation is economically. On a personal level, I have noticed that the smartest people I meet are the most hesitant and the most annoying pricks act like they are the masters of the universe. (I am definitely not saying, all confident people are dumb. Far from it)
If the 9/11 bomber wasn't sure he was going to get 17 virgins in heaven, he probably made a very bad career move. What do you think?
